The Executive Desk
Notes
The daily house view, in full and dated — the regime, what matters, and the risks on the radar. Each note is a permanent record.
Executive Brief
4 August 2026Tuesday 2026-08-04 - the oil market priced the war ending on a statement Tehran denies, and almost nothing else took the trade
Executive Brief
1 August 2026Saturday 2026-08-01 - the week one market repriced a level in every session while the other sold the press conference and then bought the earnings
Executive Brief
31 July 2026Friday 2026-07-31 - equities melted up and sorted AI winners violently while the curve steepened and the dollar cracked: the credibility discount widened through the rally
Executive Brief
30 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-30 - a divided Fed held and the bond market pushed borrowing costs to a 19-year high while the dollar cracked and gold hit a record: a credibility discount, not a hawkish repricing; and the AI-capex reckoning split Microsoft from Meta
Executive Brief
23 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-23 - a Red Sea tanker attack opened a second front and took Brent to $96, and Alphabet beat but fell >4% on a $195-205bn capex plan (the AI-bill reckoning); gold held its record, and the chip bounce is the fade
Executive Brief
22 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-22 - the diplomatic flicker died and the Iran war entrenched (a 10th night, a widening front to Saudi Arabia, a nuclear-site threat), sending Brent to $94 (Goldman eyes $120) and gold to a record above $4,100; a chip-led equity bounce runs against it
Executive Brief
21 July 2026Tuesday 2026-07-21 - after two brutal down days the market bounces on a flicker of possible Iran-US talks that eased oil off $90, but the war-and-AI twin shock is unresolved and the haven bid is entrenched (gold ~+1.1%, silver ~+2.5%)
Executive Brief
20 July 2026Monday 2026-07-20 - the Iran war turned kinetic over the weekend (US casualties in Jordan, US strikes on the Revolutionary Guard, a reimposed Hormuz blockade), sending Brent to $90 (its biggest jump in six years); the market opens risk-off with the metals finally bidding
Executive Brief - Week Wrap
18 July 2026Saturday 2026-07-18 - the week's midweek relief (a benign CPI, a walked-back Hormuz toll) broke Friday on its two ignored risks: a cheap Chinese AI model sent chips into a bear market, and the discounted oil shock returned with Brent at $88
Executive Brief
16 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't
Executive Brief
15 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-15 - a benign June CPI takes a July hike off the table and gives stocks a modest relief bid, but gold refuses to rally and Trump's 20% Hormuz toll keeps oil near $80 - a forward oil shock the print can't see
Executive Brief
13 July 2026Monday 2026-07-13 - the Iran conflict re-escalates into a fight for Hormuz control; oil spikes and futures slip into the CPI-and-earnings verdict week
Executive Brief
11 July 2026Saturday 2026-07-11 - the week's wrap: whiplash ends at S&P highs on fading breadth and rising yields; next week is CPI + earnings
Executive Brief
10 July 2026Friday 2026-07-10 - the oil premium drains on de-escalation and the relief rally broadens into small-caps, but a split Fed keeps the anchor
Executive Brief
9 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-09 - the oil shock hardens into a trend, hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling, and the tech trade unwinds
Executive Brief
8 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-08 - the ceasefire ends, oil spikes, and an oil-led risk-off slams the rate ceiling back through 5%
Executive Brief
7 July 2026Tuesday 2026-07-07 - a soft jobs print eases the rate ceiling; watch the undercurrent beneath an AI-led tape
Executive Brief
6 July 2026Monday 2026-07-06 - the reopen after the July 4th weekend
Executive Brief
4 July 2026Long-weekend edition · 2026-07-04 - US markets closed for Independence Day (equities & yields = Thu 2 Jul close)
Executive Brief
3 July 2026Friday 2026-07-03 - markets as of the 3 July session
Executive Brief
2 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-02 - markets as of the 2 July session
Executive Brief
1 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-01 - markets as of the 1 July session
Executive Brief
29 June 2026Monday 2026-06-29 - markets as of the 29 June session
Executive Brief
27 June 2026Saturday 2026-06-27 - Friday 26 Jun wrap (session pending in our market feed)
Executive Brief
26 June 2026Friday 2026-06-26 - markets as of the 25 June session
Executive Brief
25 June 2026Thursday 2026-06-25 - markets as of the 24 June session; PCE due today
Executive Brief
24 June 2026Wednesday 2026-06-24 - markets as of the 23 June session
Executive Brief
22 June 2026Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session
Executive Brief
21 June 2026Sunday 2026-06-21 — markets as of the 18 June session
EM Surge and Rate Curve Inversion Deepen Split-Market Session
20 June 2026Emerging markets outperform sharply as US short rates rise and European equities retreat.
EM Leads Risk-On Rally as Iran Sanctions Standoff Simmers
19 June 2026Cyclicals and emerging markets outperform while US–Iran asset-freeze dispute keeps energy risk premia elevated.
Fed Hawkish Pivot and Gulf Shipping Crisis Hammer Risk Assets
18 June 2026Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.
U.S.-Iran Deal Drives Oil's Sharpest Drop of the Session
17 June 2026Preliminary diplomatic agreement strips Middle East risk premium, reshaping commodity and credit markets today.
BOJ Tightening and Biotech Gains Drive Broad Risk Rally
16 June 2026Equities surge as healthcare newsflow lifts sentiment, even as gold and bonds signal residual caution.